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description last year. i think they ran eight different cover stories, showing the euro either blowing up or breaking apart or bursting into flames. not going to happen. no greek exit. no anybody else exit. but the austerity that is hitting, and hitting hard, precisely because the germans are trying to create fiscal union, and ultimately more accountability for the budgets of these peripheral countries, is hurting pretty bad. europe, you're definitely going to see significant continued pain across the eurozone, but the downside is not what people thought it was. and, frankly, that's going to slow progress because the markets won't put as much pressure on the eurozone and the bonds on these countries. >> tom: let's go from europe to emerging markets. i want to present some data from the i.m.f., forecasting the advanced economies growing at 1.5%, and emerging markets at over 5%. what are emerging markets your top risk then? >> emerging markets shouldn't be treated as a single asset class. some are increasingly developing, and as a kwon conconsequence great places to be, like turkey and braz
,"the risks of prolonged stagnation in the euro area as a whole will rise if the momentum for reform is not maintained." so the core still remains at risk, correct? >> they are at risk. there are a number of policies that have to be put in place. for the most part, they have indicated what they intend to do. they just have to do it. >> tom: are you referring to government spending cuts or or the central bank continuing with the firewall and protection. >> i was thinking about two things. the program that the b.c. b.has put in place, which has not been taken up. but if it needed to be taken up, i think it should. the other is the progress on the banking union, which is a really important thing. they have taken the first steps, jut the first steps. there is quite a way to go. >> tom: let's talk a little about the united states, because you do address the u.s., and obviously congress and the president keep putting off decisions on spending cuts for america's government budget. how does that postponement impact your forecast? >> we have assumed that basically the fiscal confrontation for
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